La notion de cycle en démographie. La fécondité post-transitionnelle est-elle cyclique ?

Deux études sur la fécondité en Europe orientale
Par Jean-Claude Chesnais
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Résumé

Chesnais Jean-Claude. — The Notion of Periodicity in Demography. Is Post- transitional Fertility Cyclical ? Following a brief presentation of the notion of periodicity in population growth, the work dealing with cyclical movements in fertility undertaken by Easterlin along the lines suggested by Kuznets in the USA is described. The author suggests that after the end of the transition, fertility will fluctuate cyclically, depending on the relative economic status of young adults. The theoretical relevance of the model, and the validity of the demographic and econometric tests to which it has been submitted are discussed with particular reference to the downswing of the cycle. It shows that Butz and Ward's alternative model in which demand for rather than supply of labour plays the determining role (the rise in women's wages being regarded as particularly important in explaining the recent decline in fertility) cannot account for the recent recovery in birth rates. A study of a long series of net reproduction ratios (1930-1980) in 18 industrialized countries suggests five different types of development of post-transitional fertility. Only two of these could correspond to the beginning of long cycles. The assumption that relative economic status plays a determining part turns out to be debatable and not to be generally true. Finally, a return to a more general explanation, rooted in a consideration of profound historical movements, is suggested.

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